Puspanjali Kumari
Mathematics
September 2025
Japanese Encephalitis (JE) is an arthropod borne flaviviral disease which affects children mainly in tropical and flood prone areas of Asia. Climate changes, particularly more severe flooding, markedly increase the mosquito population and facilitate rapid spread. This study uses an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious- Recovered) compartmental model to mimic the dynamics of JE transmission in not only the human population but also in mosquito populations and a flood-affected area. The model includes important biological and ecological characteristics, such as the α of transmission that is flood-related, the mosquito lifespan, the vector-host relationship, and the recovery rates. Calculated with empirical parameter value settings, the basic reproductive number R0≈26.2R₀ \approx. 26.2R0≈26.2 illustrates the severe outbreak risk under flood break out. Simulation results show a quick elimination of the susceptible individuals, an early peak in the infected population, and a final reaching of the fixed number of recovered people. This model also investigates the influence of vector-to-host ratios, climate-dependent variables, and media attention on disease dynamics. Results indicate that SEIR models, when combined with environmental and behavioural factors, can be useful in predicting outbreaks of and devising interventions for EBOV. Such information can also help inform geographically tailored interventions, particularly in places where resources are limited in high-risk flood areas.
572- 584
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